Three Forces

The Structural Shift

This is not a trend.

Three forces reshaping venture:

Private Markets Are Broken

Companies stay private too long. Valuations are inflated. You're paying for access. Late-stage rounds are priced like IPOs without the liquidity or discipline. There's no answer to this; it just is.

AI Is Existential

Every software category gets rebuilt AI-native or dies. Legacy vendors lose. Moats evaporate. The next decade is a free-for-all. Massive opportunity. Massive instability. No "safe" software company exists anymore.

Zombie Unicorns Are Everywhere

Companies succeed too much to sell, but not enough to go public. Growth slows. Competitors emerge. No exit path. Everyone's stuck. The 2021-2022 SaaS cohort raised at 30-50x revenue and is now underwater with no liquidity. This doesn't happen to companies where public status is a competitive advantage.